Predictions 2009

Predictions 2008 was my first year for making predictions on blogage. If you want to know how I did, click here: http://blogs.menomoneefallsnow.com/blogage/archive/2008/12/26/predictions-2008-how-did-i-do.aspx 

I made the mistake of embedding other predictions into my main predictions taking my accuracy way down. My first prediction of 2009: I will not make that mistake twice.

1. The next shoe to drop in the financial crisis will be the day of reckoning for the credit card companies. This will peak in 2009. We should begin seeing hysterical headlines about May of this year. Side note: The impact of credit derivatives on the collateralized debt obligation will totally wipe out all of the equity the investors put in. This includes SE Wisconsin school districts (not Meno. Falls or Sussex Hamilton).

2. The dollar will fall below its lowest value in 10 years.  It fetched a record-low US$1.3912 against the euro in 2008.

3. Ethanol will pretty much be discredited, by those who have the mental ability to make change from a nickel, as a viable alternative natural fuel in 2009.  If there is a low yield corn crop it will expedite the awakening from this fad binge.

4. In spite of all the deaths caused by seven to eleven time convicted drunken drivers, the state legislature will still ponder what we can do to stop the carnage. Maybe they will consider lowering the legal limit. Maybe they will consider raising the drinking age to 25. Maybe they will sue alcohol companies for millions, so we can run more MADD advertising (or spend the money on budget shortfalls when we overspend). It will never occur to them to lock up 5^th  time offenders where they can never get behind a vehicle and kill your children. My prediction: They will do nothing to ensure mandatory prison for +3 time offenders.

5. The smarter municipalities will be far more reasonable when dealing with developers in their communities. The smarter communities will realize there are far more limited development dollars and will be more accommodating instead of changing deals at the last minute or asking for more gingerbread and greenery at the 11^th hour of a deal. TIFs will grow in usage. Alternatively, developers will more readily walk to the next community when faced with unreasonable demands.

6. Israel will attack Iran in an attempt to destroy the nuclear program there. Other Arab countries will huff and puff, do nothing, and secretly sigh relief that someone finally did something to stop Iran. In my opinion, Iran has sponsored the Palestinian rocket attacks on Israel to divert Israeli military resources away from them. Israel will be an incapable of fighting a two front war.

7. A power play, to take over MPS, will be attempted in 2009.  It may be the state or it may be Milwaukee, but someone will try, and fail, on their first attempt.

8. Beyonce Knowles will be the number one revenue-generating music artist in 2009.

9. Gold will break $965.00 per ounce in 2009.

10. Brett Favre will retire after the 2008 season and un-retire in 2009. I'm not kidding.

11. Thinking that America is on the brink of financial ruin, Al-Qaeda will hasten an attack on the U.S. to send panic into financial markets. That attempt will be unsuccessful.

12. The $50 billion Bernie Madoff ponzi scam will get the average and high end investor to reconsider their investment strategy. The desire to put full faith and confidence in stocks will wane and drive demand for real estate, specifically commercial real estate and raw land. Demand will grow in 2009 for a revenue-producing asset that won't vaporize to absolute zero, like Bernie's fund or GM stock.

13. The religion of global warming will be scientifically discredited in 2009. However, "global warmbies" will claim that the scientific data actually proves their theory. In other words they will use highly developed logic based on jujitsu: I know you are but what am I? It is my fervent hope that people in this country awaken to the dangers of the environmental movement. The "environmental" movement that tried to stop a solar energy plant in the Mojave Desert because of an endangered snake. It is a movement of dangerous hypocrites.

14. The New England Patriots will pull themselves up from the ashes and win the Super Bowl in 2010.

15. The threat of the looming sick pay mandate in Milwaukee County will be a growth benefit to surrounding counties.